PriceWire

Expectancy calculator

See what win rate, payoff size and costs imply together.

Expected result

Break-even win rate

Synthetic starting example. Enter all amounts in the same currency or unit. Results are arithmetic expectations, not forecasts or guarantees. Fixed exposure; no compounding or tail-risk model. Inputs stay in your browser.

The calculation

Expected result = p × gain − (1 − p) × loss − cost. Break-even win rate = (loss + cost) / (gain + loss).

Read the worked example, or get the offline kit with a forecast journal and scoring tool.